A public-benefit research institute · in formation
Thesis Institute builds calibrated, open forecasts of the statistics and policies that shape public life — every prediction published with its full chain of reasoning, and scored against the record when the official numbers arrive. The track record is the product.
In formation · building in the openA public observatory of forecasts on government data — each one reasoned in the open, carrying a calibrated interval, and graded against reality once it resolves. Built on open instruments — deterministic policy engines and synthetic populations — so anyone can see, run, and check the work.
Law and policy encoded as open, auditable code — computed exactly, in partnership with sister organizations.
Calibrated forecasts of the uncertain world, conditioned on the rules — and scored when reality lands.
The whole stack is a public good — nothing about the forecasts, the data, or the models is hidden from the people they describe.